Elon at the Crossroads

Hat tip to Dr. Hill who forwarded this interesting Yahoo Finance item on new market research on the growing tension between Elon Musk’s evolving brand and Tesla’s. The story quotes new research from market data firm Caliber showing Elon’s increasing embrace of MAGA populism is costing Tesla sales. You can read it here. Reuters has a story too.

We blogged on our own research about Elon’s very complex brand earlier (here) and made the argument that while Elon’s numbers with traditional left of center EV buyers have really declined — no day at the park for Tesla’s marketers I am sure — his growing popularity with EV-skeptic MAGA Republicans could provide a powerful (and badly needed) Nixon to China moment for the greater cause of icreasing overall EV sales. Elon Musk is the only person in automotive history with the potential to hit two enormous home runs for electrification of mobility. He’s already done the first by establishing the modern EV industry. Now a second huge home run beckons; Elon could do plenty to break down the “Red Wall” barrier that is preventing wider EV adoption. Check out this data from our polling:

Meanwhile, the projection below — based on current battery vehicle sales broken out by political party — shows that unless EVs can break down the Red Wall of buying resistance from GOP consumers, they will never reach 56% market share (plus 13% PHEV) by 2032 in the U.S., despite the hopes of the EPA and Biden Administration. It’s just math; you cannot get big numbers just selling EVs to Democrats and Independent voters alone while being off the menu for 40% of the new car buying market. (Only hard core sales bans would do the trick and that is a political impossibility.). Have no doubt, this Elon saga is sure to be continue.