Signal vs Noise on EV Sales

February 18, 2024

EV sales surging! EV sales dropping! There are so many conflicting claims out there it is hopelessly confusing to causal observers who would just like to get a basic idea of what is going on with EV sales. So here is a bit of clarity from your pals at the EV Politics Project.

EV sales are growing fast. In 2023, battery electric cars made up 7.7% of total new light-duty vehicle registrations. A year prior that number was 5.7%. So registration has increased by 52% in one year; to over 1 million EVs. That is a huge increase; there is a solid chance EV registrations could even hit 10% of new light-duty registrations this year.

So why all the yammering about “falling EV sales”? It is the ol’ month to month game. Car sales are lumpy, some months bigger than others, and for the last few months EV sales have slowed down, but again, with month to month fluctuations including between various brands. It’s best to look at it this way: EVs had been selling like hotcakes. Now they are selling like warm cakes. Still not bad. If EVs only increase sales this year by 30% over last year’s record 52% increase is that some sort of collapse? A disaster?

No, it’s a powerful growing trend of the U.S. market moving to EVs.

There are other factors at work too. Firs the rule of big numbers. The bigger a number the harder to increase it. Going from 1.1 million EVs sold a year to 1.3 million is only a 20% or so increase. But those 200,000 new EVs would be more actual cars than a 50% increase in EV sales just a few years ago when the EV market was very small.

The future of EV sales will be driven more and more by market factors like price and how long Government rebates stay around. Improvements in charging infrastructure will help too.

Check out below how EV sales from various brands are doing in the U.S. market in the chart below from InsideEVs.com. (via S&P Mobility as reported in the Automotive News.)

You can see on some of the numbers the year over year sales increase for their EV models. (Well done Mercedes! +243%).

BEV registrations (select brands) in January through December 2023:

  • Tesla: 642,496 (up 34%) and 56.2% market share
  • Ford: 69,163 (up 26%) and 6.0% market share
  • Chevrolet: 63,659 (up 77%) and 5.6% market share
  • Hyundai: 51,411 (up 62%)
  • Rivian: 46,319
  • BMW: 42,997
  • Mercedes-Benz: 38,320 (up 243%)
  • Volkswagen: 37,040 (up 84%)
  • Kia: 30,868 (up 9%)
  • Audi: 24,700 (up 54%)
  • Nissan: 19,859
  • Volvo: 13,319
  • Toyota: 9,009
  • Subaru: 8,753
  • Cadillac: 8,633
  • Polestar: 7,544
  • Porsche: 6,809
  • Lucid: 6,254
  • Genesis: 5,660
  • Lexus: 4,801
  • Mini: 3,297
  • Fisker: 1,445
  • Jaguar: 443
  • VinFast: 265

The bottom line? The real signal inside the month to month noise is that EV sales are growing at a historically remarkable rate. The rate of increase has slowed over the last few months but sales are still increasing. What’s the long term trend? I’m bullish, but ask me in two more years when we actually know. While I have never thought the 50% of light duty vehicle sales by 2030 goals for EVs were realistic, I think 35% EV share by 2030 is quite realistic. But only more time, and hard data, will tell.